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The SMH is spruiking the end of the computer, as the young people of Japan adopt smaller form factors in lieu of PCs. They suggest that this trend will spread across the world. I tend to agree, although by 'computer' we have to accept that they mean 'PC'. And I have some reservations.

Japan is a smaller, more densely populated country that Australia, so wireless communication is easier - and cheaper. This applies less so to the US, but similar geographic factors do apply. The Japanese also use a different keypad, which restrains the immediate spread of the exact same gadgets. And again the content provided - or perhaps desired - is different because the culture is different. Aussies will not necessarily see small form factor mobile computers as such an asset, especially without the content to drive their use or the network and bandwidth to deliver that content. We certainly lag in bandwidth - and both Australia and the continental US are geographically huge, making it more difficult to saturate the market with wireless gadgetry. It's a big factor in take-up.

I do think the computer as we know it is dying, if slowly. It peaked around the year 2000 and hase been collapsing since. It's morphing into a notebook-size and will probably shrink further, but purely for practical reasons at least 30% of the PCs will 'always' need full-sized keyboards, or at least a new way to input data. I'm certainly not going to want to type all day on a Palm Pilot, Blackberry or Blackjack-sized keypad - or smaller! I even use a full-sized keyboard with my notebook/laptop. Perhaps a direct brain-computer data feed is what I need instead?

I think those direct feeds will come, but not inside the next 5 years. I almost said 10. Almost. But when on the train or bus - sure - small is a goer. Even when jogging or cycling (maybe not cycling). An all-in-one mobile-sized pocket 'computer' is certainly the way of the future for PCs if we get all the ducks lined up...

Labels: computers, future, mobiles